Gold Trend 19/02

Gold price rallied from a 3-month low last week. The US core inflation rate came in higher than expected, causing the gold price to break below the critical support level of 2000 and drop close to 1980. However, the release of the disappointing US retail sales data pushed the gold price back above 2000 (1) on Thu., ending the week near 2013. The main event on the economic calendar this week will be the release of the US Fed. Meeting minutes on Wed. Not expecting any surprising content, the dominant factors will remain to be "observing the data," "waiting for more evidence," and "the timing of rate cuts being slower than market expectations," which are mostly bearish for gold, pulling the gold price down in S-T.

1-hour chart - An S-T upward channel(3) has formed in the past 24 hours. At the Asian session today, the gold price has broken through the previously mentioned downward resistance(2) and resistance zone (2.1). There are signs of accelerating buying pressure, and the price has already moved above the channel(3). The S-T target can be set at last Tue's high near 2028(4), where the next upside target is at the resistance zone (5). With the US holiday on Monday, the market volume may be reduced. Tentatively, the trading range for this week can be set between 2000-40.

Daily Chart - Last week's downward channel (7) is still valid, and some S-T resistance from the 20-day MA(6) is expected. The overall structure has transformed from a sideways consolidation (8) to a downward correction (7) after the release of US inflation data last week.

S-T ressitance 3	2030
S-T ressitance 2	2023
S-T ressitance 1	2020
Market price	2018
S-T support 1	2015
S-T support 2	2010
S-T support 3	2002

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Risk Disclosure: Gold Bullion/Silver ("Bullion") trading carries a high degree of risk, and may not be suitable for all investors. The high degree of leverage can work against you as well as for you. This article is for reference only and is not a solicitation or advice to trade any currencies and investment products . Before deciding to trade Bullion you should carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite. The possibility exists that you could sustain a loss of some or all of your initial investment or even more in extreme circumstances (such as Gapping underlying markets) and therefore, you should not invest money that you cannot afford to lose. You should be aware of all the risks associated with trading Bullion, and seek advice from an independent financial advisor if you require. Client should not make investment decision solely based on the point of view and information on this article.  

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