Gold Trend - M-T downtrend is yet to complete ?

The downtrend in gold prices continued last week after turning back from the previous week's high of 2726.The decline accelerated after the Fed's interest rate meeting on Wednesday, failing to support at 2630(1) and falling back to a near three-month low near 2585.Then on Friday, US inflation data came down slightly, causing gold to bounce back above 2600 to close the week at 2622 (down $25 from the previous week).

As mentioned 2 weeks ago, there will be significant profit taking above 2700 while the year came close to the end. After the Fed's meeting, the market fundamentals began to change again. Fed Chairman Powell indicated that the number of interest rate cuts will be reduced in 2025, from the previously expected 4 times to 2 times; next year's relatively high inflation and high-interest rate environment will bring support to the US dollar while keeping gold prices under pressure. The new U.S. President's tariff policy will be the dominate factor to lead the gold price next year.

<< 1-Hour Chart >>

1-Hour Chart (Above) > Gold price rebounded after hitting 2583 late last week, forming a S-T bottom. Expect the rebound top near 2650. The market should be relatively quiet this week, take 2580-2650 as the trading range for now until the market develop further this week.


<< Daily Chart >>

Daily Chart (Above) > Gold was rejected by 2700 twice on the daily chart, forming a double top pattern (3). Short selling should control the market as it cleared the support by the double top neckline (3.1) last week. After the current S-T rebound, the downtrend should resume and expected the price to return to around 2540-50 in the next 2 weeks. M-T operating range would be 2535-2730(4).

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